Executive survey reports tariff and trade-war talk highlights second-quarter risks

July 24, 2025July 27, 2025 GaryPageau Gartner, tariffs, trade war

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The escalating tariff and trade war moved into the top rank of emerging risks for the second quarter of 2025, according to Gartner, Inc.

The Quarterly Emerging Risk Report series captures enterprise risk management (ERM) leaders’, risk management professionals’, auditors’, and senior executives’ views on emerging risks or over-the-horizon risk. The 2Q25 report, based on a survey of 223 senior risk and assurance executives, also revealed mounting concern around the low-growth economic environment and consumer spending slowdowns, contributing to uneasiness about slowing global economy.

“The top five emerging risks in Q2 point to two broad themes for enterprises: A volatile low-growth macroeconomic environment, and a disruptive new technology that poses significant compliance risks rapidly growing in mainstream adoption,” said Gamika Takkar, Director, Research, in the Gartner Risk & Audit Practice.

“Risk leaders need to ensure their organizations are prepared for potential disruption to supply chains and increases to the cost of doing business in a global market,” said Takkar. “These impacts have the potential to be more disruptive at a time of slowing global economic growth.”

AI-related information governance-driven risks, moved from the fifth most cited spot in 1Q25 to the fourth rank in Q2, and Shadow AI moved into the top 5 as the popularity and ease-of-access to public AI tools soars, and organizations face challenges in effectively monitoring its use:.

Figure 1: Top Emerging Risks of Q2 2025

Source: Gartner (July 2025)

Prioritizing Cost Optimization

In the current environment, executive leaders are increasingly emphasizing cost optimization. Cost-cutting measures that are rushed or poorly planned, however, can also pose a risk to organizations.

“Executive leaders expect ERM to play a critical role by thoroughly evaluating how policy changes could affect organizational performance, risk exposure, internal controls, and overall business strategy,” said Takkar. “Half of executive leaders Gartner surveyed indicated that they depend on qualitative insights from internal teams, such as compliance and ERM to guide them.”

Written by GaryPageau

Gary Pageau is principal of InfoCircle LLC, continuing his marketing communications career. InfoCircle LLC is a marketing and communications consulting firm, specializing in business-to-business markets. For nearly 25 years, he was with PMA International, serving most recently as Publisher, Content Development and Strategic Initiatives. His primary responsibilities included overseeing the Association’s editorial department, marketing research unit, education and corporate relations department.