Circana: 2026 holiday study finds consumers spending selectively, not stepping away

Circana reports U.S. consumers are entering the 2026 holiday season with a more intentional approach to spending, balancing budget pressures with a continued desire to celebrate, according to the 2026 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions Study. The study reveals, while shoppers remain focused on value, they are also seeking gifts and experiences that deliver personal relevance, emotional connection, and lasting impact.

The survey of 3,534 U.S. consumers found holiday spending is expected to average $779, compared to $796 last year. While financial pressures continue to influence purchasing decisions, consumers remain committed to holiday celebrations, with more than one in five planning to spend more than $1,000 this season. As a result, Circana expects fourth-quarter holiday spending in 2026 to range from a 1% decline to a 2.5% increase versus 2025, reflecting the balance between ongoing economic pressures and resilient holiday demand. 

“Consumers are not abandoning holiday spending, they’re becoming increasingly purposeful about where and how they spend,” said Kiara Barrett, head of global thought leadership at Circana. “Throughout 2026, we’ve seen shoppers shift toward a new definition of value, one that extends beyond price alone. While affordability remains important, consumers continue to prioritize purchases that create meaningful moments, strengthen personal connections, improve everyday life, or simply deliver a sense of joy.”

Holiday Shoppers Continue to Seek Value

Value remains the defining theme heading into the holiday season, as grocery costs and anticipated price increases continue to shape shopping decisions. While most consumers plan to spend about the same as they did last year, 29% expect to spend more, with more than half of those shoppers citing higher prices as the primary driver. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of consumers expect to adopt money-saving behaviors, including purchasing more promotional items, seeking deals, buying store brands, and scaling back in discretionary categories.

The findings align with broader retail trends observed by Circana throughout 2026, as consumers become more selective in where they allocate their dollars. While overall retail demand has remained soft, shoppers continue to prioritize purchases and experiences they perceive as truly worth it.

Despite increased scrutiny around spending, consumers continue to protect gifting occasions and prioritize purchases that carry emotional relevance. Earlier 2026 gifting holidays demonstrated that shoppers are actively seeking gifts that promote wellness, support hobbies and fandoms, create experiences, or add meaningful value to everyday life.

Holiday shoppers are increasingly gravitating toward categories that blend practicality and personal significance, including wellness products, personalized gifts, collectibles, experiences, connected home products, and other items that foster connection and self-expression.

“Consumers are redefining what makes a gift valuable,” Barrett said. “The winners this holiday season will be brands that help shoppers express care, connection, identity, and purpose — products with emotional relevance have the greatest opportunity to stand out.”