NRF: Summer events fueling consumer spending

Travel and mid-year promotions make summer a key spending season for consumers and retailers, but this year stands out with more opportunities than usual to celebrate, connect and spend. From the 2026 FIFA World Cup to America’s 250th anniversary, the calendar is packed with events bringing people together, according to NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews. Along with traditional drivers like travel, graduations, Father’s Day and back-to-school shopping, these moments are expected to fuel spending activity across a range of retail categories and create opportunities for retailers to help consumers make the most of the season, he said.

According to Matthews:

• Retail Economic Perspective: The 2026 FIFA World Cup, America 250 and holiday events are giving consumers more reasons to spend this summer
• Retailer Bottom Line: Summer usually sees a ramp-up in spending, but this year, consumers have even more reasons to spend. As inflation remains high, it will test the recent pattern of consumers saving less and spending more. 

   

With summer vacations and mid-year discounting by major retail brands, summer is always an important season for consumers and retailers alike. This year is particularly noteworthy because there are so many more reasons to celebrate, connect and spend — summer 2026 is clearly shaping up as a season of milestones and memories.

The World Cup means more competition for our dollars. Soccer’s quadrennial extravaganza is no longer just a foreign curiosity — by some measures, soccer is now the third most popular sport in America. A recent poll NRF did with Prosper Insights & Analytics shows that 66.8 million American adults will watch the World Cup across streaming and television, and millions more will watch the matches live in stadiums across the country.

In total, consumers plan to spend $10.8 billion, with 27% saying they will purchase team apparel or accessories and a whopping 21% saying they will purchase televisions — much higher than what we see annually for the Super Bowl.

And it’s not just the World Cup this year. America 250 celebrations will be taking place across the country, including the Great American State Fair in Washington, D.C., as well as a host of celebrations across the country.

AAA forecasts a record-breaking 72.2 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home during the extended July 4th holiday period. State-based celebrations will also be a major theme with parades and exhibitions dotted around the country.

While these events are likely to be supportive of retail spending (particularly food and beverages), in many cases they will also compete for what is becoming a stretched dollar. With consumers paying high prices for tickets, lodging and gas prices, retail goods might come under pressure as we get deeper into the summer.

Unless gas prices start to soften, it’s likely that any surplus windfall from tax refunds will likely be offset by energy-related spending by the end of July. Given that wage growth has dipped below the rate of inflation, the consumer might have to start making difficult choices about how to spend their hard earned dollars in the fall.