Circana: Holiday shopping insights shows in-store spending up

Circana posted a preliminary holiday sales report. The early signals from Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025 reveal a significant shift in spending behaviors. Unlike the consistency of previous years, income disparity is driving distinct patterns this season.

• Spending Diverges by Income: Unlike last year’s consistent spending across demographics, Black Friday and Cyber Monday levels diverged significantly this year. Lower-income households are pulling back spending relative to upper-income households.
• Trip Value Shifts: Spend-per-trip increased 4% in-store to $47.24, while online basket sizes decreased 3% to $62.11. Notably, Mass and Home Hardware were the two largest channels to experience decreases in in-store trip value.
• Overall Season Outlook: While receipt data is still incomplete, early indicators suggest the season is tracking toward an overall decline in spending levels compared to last year, which benefited from heavier pre-Black Friday activity.
• The Final Stretch: Expect online sales to remain relatively strong through the current week. In-store and BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store) trips will likely heat up this weekend and into the final shopping week, with lower-income groups expected to drive late-season traffic.