CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows February sales were down monthly amid tariff concerns

Retail spending declined on a monthly basis in February amid concern over tariffs. Still, it continued to grow year over year as the economy remained strong, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

“Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” said Matthnew Shay, president and CEO, NRF. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”

According to the Retail Monitor, total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 3.38% unadjusted year over year in February. That compared with a decrease of 1.07% month over month and an increase of 5.44% year over year in January.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was also down 0.22% month over month in February but up 4.11% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.27% month over month and an increase of 5.72% year over year in January.

Total sales were up 4.41% year over year for the first two months of the year and core sales were up 4.91%. That compares with 3.6% growth for the full year in 2024.

The February monthly downturn came after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico at the beginning of February. The Canada-Mexico tariffs were immediately delayed by a month, then delayed again for most goods until April 2 last week, but the tariffs on China were doubled to 20%. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January, marking the second monthly decline after five months of small gains.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

February sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores, and general merchandise stores. Sales were down in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 0.46% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 36.51% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 8.33% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were down 0.42% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.2% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.07% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 4.08% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.78% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 3.75% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.93% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.57% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.43% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.06% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 1.02% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 3.34% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 1.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 3.67% year over year unadjusted.