Census data for October shows ‘healthy’ retail sales and ‘early step forward’ into the holiday season

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that retail sales grew solidly over the past two months, demonstrating households’ capacity to spend and the strength of the economy, National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” Kleinhenz said. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in October were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 2% year over year in September.

October’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were unchanged seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.4% unadjusted year over year.

Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 10 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. NRF is forecasting that 2024 holiday sales during November and December will also increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year. Nearly half (45%) of holiday shoppers surveyed for NRF planned to begin holiday shopping before November.

Earlier this week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were up 0.83% month over month in October and up 4.59% year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.28% month over month and an increase of 0.94% year over year in September. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that gives more accurate results in real time that do not need to be revised monthly or annually.