Circana: July retail sales reveal a summer vacation from discretionary spending

Total U.S. retail sales across the combined view of discretionary general merchandise and consumer packaged goods (CPG) continued on the path toward a state of equilibrium in July, according to Circana, the marketing research firm. During the four weeks ending August 3, 2024, overall sales revenue remained level with the same four weeks last year, and unit demand declined 1%. While both food and beverage and non-edible CPG sales revenue increased 1%, with generally flat year-over-year unit performance, discretionary sales remained challenged, with a 3% decline in dollars and a 2% decline in units. Despite major retail promotional events, consumers maintained their steady spending of the past several months, according to Circana.

“This month’s sales results demonstrate just how adept consumers have gotten at adapting their spending behavior to stick to a budget, including taking a break in some areas,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “This apparent vacation from spending is having an impact across discretionary categories. The long-standing strong performance in beauty and the auto aftermarket is starting to level off; back-to-school shopping has yet to show up in a significant way, and challenging results for apparel, footwear, and accessories demonstrate that consumers are holding off on updating their wardrobes.”

There is a growing focus on finding value in new channels, as evident in the retail food and beverage revenue gains that clubs and dollar stores have captured in the first half of this year. Similar club store gains in non-edible CPG indicate related behavior there as well. In discretionary general merchandise, the shifts are more about what consumers are buying than where — products are prioritized based on need, and brand loyalty is tested by financial concerns and competitive product offerings across all channels.

“Consumers are shifting their dollars, not spending more, so marketers need to find ways to be the beneficiaries of these changes or risk being the victims,” added Cohen. “As fall weather approaches and looming distractions around summer activities and the election evolve, it will be important to watch how consumer spending behavior changes — because it will change.”