CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: March sales grew only moderately amid tariff concerns

Retail sales grew in March after two straight months of declines, but gains remained moderate as consumers continued to be concerned by rising tariffs, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

“Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO, NRF. “The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals. A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With an unclear economic outlook and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.75% unadjusted year over year in March, according to the Retail Monitor. That compares with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 3.38% year over year in February.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was up 0.4% month over month in March and up 5.07% year over year. That compares with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 4.11% year over year in February.

Total sales were up 4.52% year over year for the first three months of the year and core sales were up 4.96%.

The March results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2, along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries. The reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, but additional tariffs on China have resulted in back-and-forth escalation between China and the U.S. Even before that, however, a survey conducted for NRF by Prosper Insights & Analytics found 46% of consumers said they were stocking up on household appliances, clothing and other items in early March because they were worried they would become more expensive because of tariffs.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

March sales were up across the board on a yearly basis, led by digital products, general merchandise stores, and sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores. Sales were up in five out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Digital products were up 0.79% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 27.62% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.48% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.62% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.63% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.29% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.94% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.39% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.65% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.05% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.76% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 2.37% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.81% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 0.78% year over year unadjusted.

To learn more, visit nrf.com/nrf/cnbc-retail-monitor.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.