NRF: Census data for November shows holiday spending ‘clearly on track’ to meet NRF’s forecast

Following an early start to holiday shopping in October, data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows solid retail sales continued as the holiday season officially got underway in November, said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist, National Retail Federation (NRF).

“November’s results show a strong start to the traditional holiday season,” Kleinhenz said. “These numbers combined with better-than-expected October sales are evidence that consumer spending continues to fuel the economy. Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending. This growth comes even though the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of the busiest shopping portion of the holiday season and pushed Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday sales into December. The season’s pace of spending is clearly on track to reach our forecast.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in November were up 0.7% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.5% month over month and 2.9% year over year in October.

November’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants — were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.8% unadjusted year over year.

November’s results align with NRF’s forecast that holiday sales will grow 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023. NRF defines the season as November 1 through December 31, but nearly half (45%) of holiday shoppers planned to begin before then and 58% had started by early November. Core sales were up 3.5% year over year for the first 11 months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast that sales for the full year will also grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales in November were down 0.19% month over month from October’s strong showing but up 1.43% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.83% month over month and 4.59% year over year in October. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, giving more accurate real-time results that do not need to be revised monthly or annually.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.