NRF: Census data shows retail sales grew in March but consumers are ‘not feeling great’ as tariffs rise

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau showed retail sales grew in March even though consumers continued to worry about the impact of rising tariffs, said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist, National Retail Federation (NRF).

“Retail sales strengthened in March, supported by continued solid growth in income, lower energy costs and bigger-than-usual tax refunds that all helped support household budgets,” Kleinhenz said. “However, there is no question that the consumer is not feeling great given the confusion of policy announcements from Washington. On-again, off-again rising tariffs and resulting turmoil in the stock market and world economy are clearly impacting consumer concerns about higher prices and future consumer spending growth.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in March were up 1.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 4.6% unadjusted year over year. That compares with increases of 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year in February.

March’s core retail sales, as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants — were up 0.6% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.4% unadjusted year over year. Core sales were up 2.6% year over year on a three-month moving average.

The results come as NRF is forecasting that core retail sales will grow between 2.7% and 3.7% in 2025 compared with 2024.

On Monday, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month in March and were up 5.07% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.22% month over month and an increase of 4.11% year over year in February.

Both the Census and Retail Monitor results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries. The reciprocal tariffs were subsequently suspended for 90 days, but other tariff announcements have followed, and the situation remains fluid. A survey conducted for NRF in March found 46% of consumers were stocking up on appliances, clothing, and other items because they were worried that tariffs would bring higher prices.