CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: January sales drop from busy December but strong gains year over year

Shoppers spent less in January than they did during the busy holiday month before but retail sales had strong year-over-year gains nonetheless, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

“Consumers pulled back in January, taking a breather after a stronger-than-expected holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO, NRF. “Despite the monthly decline, the year-over-year increases reflect overall consumer strength as a strong job market and wage gains above the rate of inflation continue to support spending. We’re seeing a ‘choiceful’ and value-conscious consumer who is rotating spending across goods and services and essentials and non-essentials, boosting some sectors while causing challenges in others.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 1.07% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.44% unadjusted year over year in January, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 1.74% month over month and 7.24% year over year in December.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was down 1.27% month over month in January but up 5.72% year over year. That compared with increases of 2.19% month over month and 8.41% year over year in December.

The results come after core retail sales grew 4% year over year during the 2024 holiday season and 3.6% for the full year.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

January sales were up in seven out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores, and clothing and accessories stores. Sales were up in three categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 30.49% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.77% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 10.39% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were down 2.96% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 7.67% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were down 2.43% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 7.53% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were down 0.23% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.65% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores were down 1.89% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.82% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 1.46% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.57% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 2.03% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.27% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were up 0.27% month over month seasonally adjusted but down 0.99% year over year unadjusted.