CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: Sales grew in November

Moderate retail sales growth continued in November even as two of the holiday season’s busiest shopping days bumped over into December and weren’t included in the month’s totals, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released by the National Retail Federation.

“November sales increased on top of a strong October and would have been even higher if Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday hadn’t fallen in December,” said Matthew Shay, CEO and president, NRF. “Year-over-year gains were solid even as retail prices in many categories are lower this year, showing that consumers are buying more merchandise as the economy continues to grow. We remain confident in our holiday forecast.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.15% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.35% unadjusted year over year in November, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.74% month over month and 4.13% year over year in October.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles dealers and gasoline stations) was down 0.19% month over month in November but up 1.43% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.83% month over month and 4.59% year over year in October.

Total sales were up 2.15% year over year for the first 11 months of 2024 and core sales were up 2.33%. The numbers come as NRF is forecasting that retail sales during the November-December holiday season will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

November sales were up in five out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, grocery and beverage stores and clothing and accessories stores. Sales were up in two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 1.32% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 21.48% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.95% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.31% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.18% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 4.21% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were down 0.05% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 2.01% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were down 0.16% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 1.64% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.8% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 1.15% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 2.19% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 2.93% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.19% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 7.28% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were down 1.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 7.39% year over year unadjusted.