NRF: Holiday season was a notable success as ‘consumers came out to spend’

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows core retail sales during the 2024 holiday season grew an unexpectedly high 4% over 2023 to a record $994.1 billion, coming in ahead of the National Retail Federation’s forecast, NRF said. Sales for the full year grew 3.6% over 2023 to a record $5.28 trillion.

“Consumers came out to spend this holiday season and clearly underscored the solid growth in the US economy,” said Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist, NRF. “The spending pace was back to pre-pandemic growth and indicates a good start for the year ahead. While the shorter holiday shopping calendar likely influenced the continued trend of more online shopping, there was also a return to in-person shopping experiences and a focus on early buying. The 2024 figures were driven in part by lower inflation compared with 2023, particularly for goods. Even though consumers are still relatively healthy and there was a notable increase in spending, they remain budget conscious.”

The 2024 holiday sales results top the previous record of $955.6 billion spent during the 2023 holiday season. NRF had forecast that 2024 holiday sales would increase between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales is based on Census Bureau data but excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.

The holiday total, which is not adjusted for inflation, includes online and other non-store sales, which were up 8.6% at $296.7 billion. NRF had forecast that the category would grow between 8% and 9% to between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. Online holiday sales were $273.3 billion in 2023.

The $5.28 trillion in core retail sales for the full year reached the top end of NRF’s forecast 2024 annual sales would also grow between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. Sales during 2023 totaled $5.1 trillion, the previous full-year spending record.

For December alone, core retail sales as defined by NRF (excluding autos, gas and restaurants) were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted from November and up 4.2% unadjusted year over year. By comparison, sales were up 0.3% month over month in November and up 3.9% year over year. The late timing of Thanksgiving in 2024 shifted sales on Thanksgiving Sunday and Cyber Monday from November into December, affecting results for both months accordingly.

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in December were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.9% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.8% month over month and 4.1% year over year in November.

November-December holiday sales saw year-over-year gains in seven of nine retail categories, led by online sales, furniture stores and electronics and appliances stores. Specifics from key sectors for the two months combined, all on an unadjusted year-over-year basis, include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 8.6%.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 5.6%.
• Electronics and appliance stores were up 3.7%.
• Health and personal care stores were up 3%.
• Clothing and clothing accessory stores were up 2.8%.
• General merchandise stores were up 2.4%.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 2.1%.
• Building materials and garden supply stores were unchanged.
• Sporting goods stores were unchanged.

NRF’s Holiday Jobs Forecast Was on Target

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data, NRF estimates retailers hired 438,000 seasonal workers during November and December, which is in line with the 400,000 to 500,000 NRF expected. As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.